Sam Houston — 2026 schedule & results record 1-6 · model's picks 7-0 so far
Proj rating -18.7 · SOS -7.9 · Mean wins 3.8 · Picked 1-11 · Vegas 3.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Troy | away | L 21–24 | +16 ✓ | -15.8 | 18% | L ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Tulsa | home | L 17–23 | +12 ✓ | -8.8 | 30% | L ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Nicholls | home | W 59–0 | -21 ✓ | +12.5 | 77% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Texas Tech | away | L 14–49 | +34.5 ✗ | -44.2 | 0% | L ✓ | |
| 6 | Thu 10/08 | Liberty | away | L 3–35 | +13.5 ✗ | -13.0 | 23% | L ✓ |
Liberty -14 · WIN +29 |
| 7 | Wed 10/14 | Western Kentucky | home | L 3–16 | +1.25 ✗ | -14.7 | 19% | L ✓ |
Western Kentucky -1 · WIN +18 |
| 8 | Wed 10/21 | New Mexico State | home | L 24–30 | +3 ✗ | -1.3 | 47% | L ✓ |
New Mexico State -3 · WIN +20 |
| 9 | Tue 10/27 | Missouri State | away | — | +5.5 | -8.7 | 30% | L | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Jacksonville State | away | — | — | -12.8 | 22% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Kennesaw State | home | — | — | -2.9 | 43% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Middle Tennessee | home | — | — | -2.1 | 45% | L | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Florida International | away | — | — | -13.5 | 21% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.